In the following interactive exercise you can test your knowledge about changes in the climate system due to global change.
Select the correct statements from the following:
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1. Intensity and frequency of tropical storms (cyclones) increased during the 20th century.
The correct answer is FALSE. Changes in tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by interdecadal variations. No clear evidence for changes in tropical storm activities over the 20th century exist so far. Due to incomplete data and limited analysis it is not clear if there have been long-term changes in extra-tropical cyclones. In the northern hemisphere, regional increases have been identified (e.g. in Europe over the past several decades), whereas in the southern hemisphere it is possible that there has been a decrease in extra-tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s.
You said FALSE. You are correct! Changes in tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by interdecadal variations. No clear evidence for changes in tropical storm activities over the 20th century exist so far. Due to incomplete data and limited analysis it is not clear if there have been long-term changes in extra-tropical cyclones. In the northern hemisphere, regional increases have been identified (e.g. in Europe over the past several decades), whereas in the southern hemisphere it is possible that there has been a decrease in extra-tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s.
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2. A clear increase in tornado intensity and frequency can be detected in teh USA.
You said TRUE. The correct answer is FALSE. Because tornadoes
and other small-scale severe weather phenomena (e.g. hail, lightning,
thunder days) are characterized by random temporal and spatial events,
it is not possible to measure all such events. There have been relatively
few large-scale analyses of these events so far. Nevertheless, recent
analyses of changes in severe local weather in a few regions provide
no compelling evidence for systematic long-term changes.
You said FALSE.
You are correct! Because tornadoes and other small-scale
severe weather phenomena (e.g. hail, lightning, thunder days) are
characterized by random temporal and spatial events, it is not possible
to measure all such events. There have been relatively few large-scale
analyses of these events so far. Nevertheless recent analyses of
changes in severe local weather in a few regions provide no compelling
evidence for systematic long-term changes.
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3. The extent of snow cover changed dramatically. There have been decreases in the extent of snow cover in the northern hemisphere of more than 50% since the 1960s.
Incorrect. The correct answer is FALSE. It is correct that there have been very likely decreases in the extent of the
snow cover since the late 1960s, but the situation is not as dramatic as mentioned
in this statement: Satellite data show that there have been decreases of about 10%
in the extent of snow cover. Moreover, during the 20th century there has been
a probable reduction of about two weeks in the annual duration of lake- and
river ice cover in the northern hemisphere and about a 40% decline in Arctic
sea ice thickness during late summer in recent decades.
Congratulations! It is correct that there have been very likely decreases in the
extent of the snow cover since the late 1960s, but the situation is not as
dramatic as mentioned in this statement: Satellite data show that there have
been decreases of about 10% in the extent of snow cover. Moreover, during the
20th century there has been a probable reduction of about two weeks in the
annual duration of lake- and river ice cover in the northern hemisphere and
about a 40% decline in Arctic sea ice thickness during late summer in
recent decades.
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4. In many regions of the world, permafrost is currently recessing.
Correct. Recent analyses indicate that permafrost in many regions of the
world is recessing. For example, in North America teh southern boundary of the
discontinuous permafrost zone has shifted northwards in response to climate
change after 1850, and in China a shrinking of the permafrost extent has been recorded.
Sorry. Your answer is incorrect. Recent analyses indicate that permafrost in many regions of the
world is recessing. For example, in North America teh southern boundary of the
discontinuous permafrost zone has shifted northwards in response to climate
change after 1850, and in China a shrinking of the permafrost extent has been recorded.
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5. A widespread retreat of glaciers in non-polar regions, during the last 100 years can be traced.
Correct. A widespread retreat of glaciers in non-polar regions can be
recorded during the 20th century. A few exceptions in coastal regions are consistent
with atmospheric circulation variations and related precipitation increases.
See the example in the Swiss Alps.
You answered FALSE. This is incorrect. A widespread retreat of glaciers in non-polar regions can be
recorded during the 20th century. A few exceptions in coastal regions are consistent
with atmospheric circulation variations and related precipitation increases.
See the example in the Swiss Alps.
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6. Precipitations around the world have increased in the 20th century.
Incorrect. This statement is untrue. Total atmospheric water vapour has increased over many
regions of the Northern Hemisphere and it's very likely that precipitations have increased over most mid-
and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere continents as well as (less obviously) over the tropical land
areas (10�N to 10�s). There has also bee an increase in teh frequency of heavy precipitation events in the
mid- and high latitudes of teh Northern Hemisphere. But it is also likely that precipitations have decreased
over the Northern Hemisphere subtropical land areas (10�N to 30�N) and no systematic changes in
precipitations have bee detected over the subtropical-mid- and high latitudes of teh Southern Hemisphere.
Yes. It this is FALSE. This statement is untrue. Total atmospheric water vapour has increased over many
regions of the Northern Hemisphere and it's very likely that precipitations have increased over most mid-
and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere continents as well as (less obviously) over the tropical land
areas (10�N to 10�s). There has also bee an increase in teh frequency of heavy precipitation events in the
mid- and high latitudes of teh Northern Hemisphere. But it is also likely that precipitations have decreased
over the Northern Hemisphere subtropical land areas (10�N to 30�N) and no systematic changes in
precipitations have bee detected over the subtropical-mid- and high latitudes of teh Southern Hemisphere.
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7. The global average sea level rose about 0.1 or 0.2 meters during the 20th century.
Well done. This statement is true. Melting glaciers cause an increase in water running in to the sea
and the increase in sea temperatures causes an expansion of sea water volumes (eustatic sea water level fluctuations). But
sea level is also influenced by processes that are not directly related to climate change, such as terrestial water storage,
(e.g. extraction of ground water, changes in surface runoff) or geological processes (e.g. slow processes in the Earth's
crust like isostasy).
Incorrect. This statement is in fact true. Melting glaciers cause an increase in water running in to the sea
and the increase in sea temperatures causes an expansion of sea water volumes (eustatic sea water level fluctuations). But
sea level is also influenced by processes that are not directly related to climate change, such as terrestial water storage,
(e.g. extraction of ground water, changes in surface runoff) or geological processes (e.g. slow processes in the Earth's
crust like isostasy).
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8. No significant decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent can be detected so far.
Correct. This is true. Since 1978, the period of satellite measurements, no
significant trends of Antarctic sea ice extent can be detected. Moreover, some parts of
Antarctica have not warmed in recent decades as neither have some parts of the southern
hemisphere oceans.
You said FALSE. The correct answer is TRUE. Since 1978, the period of satellite measurements, no
significant trends of Antarctic sea ice extent can be detected. Moreover, some parts of
Antarctica have not warmed in recent decades as neither have some parts of the southern
hemisphere oceans.
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Climate scenarios
To make projections of climate change in the 21st century, models to calculate
atmospheric composition based on emission scenarios have bee used by teh IPCC (read more about
climate modelling in Quaternary paleoenvironments - methods.
Carbon cycle models project that by 2100, atmospheric CO2 concentrations
may be 90% to 250% above the concentrations of the year 1750 (before CO2 increase due to human impact).
Model calculations of the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gases vary considerably across
different scenarios.
To stabilize radiative forcing, reductions in greenhouse gaz emission would be necessary. Carbon cycle
models indicate that stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level of 90%
above the concentration of the year 1750 require global anthropogenic CO2 concentrations of
90% to 250% above the concentration of the year 1750 (before CO2 increase due human impact). Model
calculations of the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gases vary considerably across different scenarios.
According to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) the globally averaged surface temperature
is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8ºC over the period 1990 to 2100 (results are based on a number of different
scenarios). The projected rate of warming is much larger than the observed warming during the 20th century.
Not only temperature will change in the 21st century but also precipitation rates. By the second half of 21st
century, precipitation will have increased over Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes an Antarctica in
winter. At low latitudes there are both regional increases and decreases. Some other weather and climate
events and climate factors will change too.
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Maximum temperatures:
INCREASE:
Higher maximum temperatures over nearly all land areas are projected
for the 21st century.
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Number of cold/frost days:
DECREASE: Fewer cold and
frost days over nearly all land areas are projected for the 21st century. |
Intense precipitation events:
INCREASE: More intense
precipitation events are projected for the 21st century. |
Ocean thermohaline circulation:
DECREASE: Most models
show weakening of the ocean thermohaline circulation which leads to a reduction
of heat transport into high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. |
Minimum temperatures:
INCREASE: Higher minimum
temperatures over nearly all land areas are projected for the 21st century. |
Number of hot days:
INCREASE: More hot days over nearly all land areas are projected for
the 21st century. |
Sea ice extent:
DECREASE: Northern Hemisphere
sea ice extent is projected to decrease further in the 21st century. |
Tropical cyclone wind peak intensities:
INCREASE: An increase
in tropical cyclone wind peak intensities and general tropical cyclone
energy is projected for the 21st century. |
Number of tsunamis:
REMAIN: A tsunami is
a geological phenomenon, a under sea level earth quake. Climate change
has no influence on earthquakes. |
Tropical cyclone precipitation intensities
INCREASE: An increase
in tropical cyclone precipitation intensities is projected for the 21st
century. |
Risk of drought:
INCREASE: A tsunami
is a geological phenomenon, a under sea level earth quake. Climate change
has no influence on earthquakes. |
Mountain glaciers and ice caps extent:
DECREASE: Northern Hemisphere
snow extent as well as mountain glaciers and ice caps are projected to
decrease further. |
Global mean sea level:
INCREASE: Global mean
sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters between 1990 and
2100. |
Mass of Antarctic Ice shield:
INCREASE: The Antarctic
Ice shield is likely to gain mass because of greater precipitation. |