ALPECOLE
_
Quaternary paleoenvironments - results

Global change

Global warming

During the past 100 - 150 years an increase of temperature has been noted in most regions of the world. Globally the 1998 and 2001 average annual temperature were the greatest since 1860. 10 of the 15 warmest years during the past 150 years were in the 1990s. Temperatures in the 1990s probably were even higher than in any decade during the last 1000 years. The changes of temperatures during the last 1000 years can be reconstructed with the help of reconstruction methods (see Lessons D1a, D1b). As also noted in other lessons, the Earth’s climate changed over periods of thousands to millions of years due to natural influences. But the increase of temperature in the last 100-150 years is unique during the last 1000 years due to the intensity and the very short time period in which the temperatures changes have occurred.

During the last 150 years, the average annual temperature of the troposphere has warmed about 0.4 - 0.8°C. The northern hemisphere warmed more than the southern hemisphere .

But not only air temperature was subject to change. Ocean temperatures have been rising too. Since about 1980, sea-surface temperature has been measured by satellites with infrared sensors. Surface temperature has increased between 1976 and 2000 at a rate of 0.14°c per decade.

Warming in Switzerland during the 20th century was greater than average global warming for a variety of reasons:

  • Temperature on continents is increasing more than the average global temperature.
  • As a result of melting glaciers and lower albedo at higher latitudes, the Earth’s surface has warmed more in such regions.
Periodically, natural climate changes e.g. due to changes in the northern Atlantic oscillation may strengthen (or weaken) warming.

 

Greenhouse gases and other influences

Changes in climate occur as a result of both internal variability within the climate system and external forcing (natural or anthropogenic). Due to newer investigations it seems to be clear, that climate change is caused partly by human impact such as the production of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons) with radiative forcing. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by 31% since 1750, predominantly due to human activities such as fossil fuel burning or deforestation. Concentration of methane has increased by 151%. The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded in 420 000 years and the current rate of increase unprecedented in at least 20 000 years. The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 17% since 1750 and has never been exceeded in the last thousand years.

The radiative forcing due to increases of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases from 1750 to 2000 is estimated to be 2.43 Wm−2. Other phenomena resulting from human activities, such as the indirect effect of aerosols (effecting the size and number of cloud droplets), or the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, as well as natural phenomena (activity of the sun and of volcanoes) cause a negative radiative forcing. But the positive radiative forcing is stronger than the negative.  

In the following interactive exercise you can test your knowledge about changes in the climate system due to global change.
Select the correct statements from the following:

1. Intensity and frequency of tropical storms (cyclones) increased during the 20th century.

true�    false   

The correct answer is FALSE. Changes in tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by interdecadal variations. No clear evidence for changes in tropical storm activities over the 20th century exist so far.

Due to incomplete data and limited analysis it is not clear if there have been long-term changes in extra-tropical cyclones. In the northern hemisphere, regional increases have been identified (e.g. in Europe over the past several decades), whereas in the southern hemisphere it is possible that there has been a decrease in extra-tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s.

2. A clear increase in tornado intensity and frequency can be detected in teh USA.

true�    false   

3. The extent of snow cover changed dramatically. There have been decreases in the extent of snow cover in the northern hemisphere of more than 50% since the 1960s.

true�    false   

4. In many regions of the world, permafrost is currently recessing.

true�    false   

5. A widespread retreat of glaciers in non-polar regions, during the last 100 years can be traced.

true�    false   

6. Precipitations around the world have increased in the 20th century.

true�    false   

7. The global average sea level rose about 0.1 or 0.2 meters during the 20th century.

true�    false   

8. No significant decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent can be detected so far.

true�    false   


 

Climate scenarios

To make projections of climate change in the 21st century, models to calculate atmospheric composition based on emission scenarios have bee used by teh IPCC (read more about climate modelling in Quaternary paleoenvironments - methods.

Carbon cycle models project that by 2100, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may be 90% to 250% above the concentrations of the year 1750 (before CO2 increase due to human impact). Model calculations of the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gases vary considerably across different scenarios.

To stabilize radiative forcing, reductions in greenhouse gaz emission would be necessary. Carbon cycle models indicate that stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level of 90% above the concentration of the year 1750 require global anthropogenic CO2 concentrations of 90% to 250% above the concentration of the year 1750 (before CO2 increase due human impact). Model calculations of the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gases vary considerably across different scenarios.

According to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) the globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8ºC over the period 1990 to 2100 (results are based on a number of different scenarios). The projected rate of warming is much larger than the observed warming during the 20th century. Not only temperature will change in the 21st century but also precipitation rates. By the second half of 21st century, precipitation will have increased over Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes an Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes there are both regional increases and decreases. Some other weather and climate events and climate factors will change too.

activity icon Decide whether the below mentioned phenomena will increase, decrease or remain at today's level.

Maximum temperatures:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Number of cold/frost days:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Intense precipitation events:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Ocean thermohaline circulation:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Minimum temperatures:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Number of hot days:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Sea ice extent:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Tropical cyclone wind peak intensities:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Number of tsunamis:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Tropical cyclone precipitation intensities
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Risk of drought:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Mountain glaciers and ice caps extent:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Global mean sea level:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged
Mass of Antarctic Ice shield:
increase   decrease   remain unchanged

 

 
Consequences of global change to alpine regions

Global change causes changes in alpine climate as well as in alpine ecosystems, slope and fluvial processes. A number of essential changes are projected for the 21st century. Read more about these changes in Slope processes and alpine soils: Global change.

 

upback to topup

29 August 2011
© ALPECOLe 2002-2007