Modelling biodiversity and ecosystem services loss scenarios

Findings & Relevance

We establish response curves where land use has a robust relationship with BES service indicators, then indicate turning points where impacts of land use shift or accelerate. We found most relationships included these turning points, and that land use had consistent negative relationships with biodiversity metrics and regulating service supply, and positive relationships with most material services. However, only grazing, livestock, and access to nature had consistent robust relationships with land use. Land use may also have legacy effects on BES. We found that incorporating historical land use change very consistently improved model fit and parsimony, but only to a small degree. Finally, we selected sustainable, business as usual, regional rivalry and high growth future land use scenarios to input into our models, to compare the impacts on BES. However, given the robust models found, typically with positive relationships between land use and ecosystem services, higher land use in certain areas or scenarios led to higher ecosystem service values. We believe BES scenarios will contribute valuable input to policy makers, businesses, consumers and civil society on expected states of biodiversity and ecosystem services. They will support actions to improve biodiversity and ecosystem services.'The scenarios may shed further light about potential tipping points of ecosystem services – which is crucial information for livelihoods and businesses.'